MATIC showcases a remarkable 10-month ROI with its long-term ascending channel, while key indicators like RSI and OBV hint at a potential market reversal.
Over the past ten months, MATIC has consistently demonstrated a pattern of higher lows and higher highs on the daily chart, with an impressive 10-month return on investment (ROI) of 212%. MATIC formed a long-term ascending channel (yellow) during this time, crucial in market cycles. An up-channel indicates a steady uptrend, providing traders valuable insight to time their entries and exits in the market.
An ascending channel consists of two parallel trendlines that connect a series of higher highs and higher lows. The upper trendline acts as resistance, while the lower trendline serves as support. As the price moves within the channel, traders can anticipate potential buying and selling opportunities based on these support and resistance levels.
The 2023 breakout rally began at the lower trendline of the ascending channel, leading to over 100% ROI for bullish investors. However, as anticipated, a reversal occurred at the upper trendline of the up-channel, and the price dropped, creating a down-channel (white). A down channel is the opposite of the ascending channel and signifies a bearish trend where the price consistently forms lower highs and lower lows.
Recently, the $0.94-$0.97 range emerged as a demand zone after buyers turned it from resistance to support, leading to a breakout from the down channel. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) (yellow) currently trends downward, suggesting a bearish sentiment. If the 20 EMA falls below the 200 EMA (red), the long-term momentum will shift in favor of the sellers.
The widely-used Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that evaluates the speed and magnitude of price fluctuations within a 0-100 range. An RSI value above 70 indicates overbought conditions, while a value below 30 signals oversold conditions. Currently, RSI shows a bearish edge, heading toward the oversold region. However, this could also indicate a potential reversal.
On the other hand, the On-Balance-Volume (OBV) reveals that while the price action marks lower lows, the OBV marks higher lows, suggesting a buildup of buying pressure and a bullish divergence.
In 2023, MATIC has seen a steady increase in Daily Active Users (DAU), an essential metric indicating user engagement with the network. DAUs represent the number of unique users interacting with the blockchain daily, including sending transactions, participating in decentralized applications (dApps), or staking tokens. A rising DAU trend often signals growing network adoption and increased utility, positively impacting the price.
Interestingly, the recent trend in DAU closely correlated with price action until a few days ago. However, the price action has recently marked lower lows, while DAU has marked higher lows, indicating a potential reversal in price. This divergence between price and DAU may suggest that the network's fundamentals remain strong despite the recent bearish trend in price.
Funding rates on top exchanges were very low in April but have started to improve over the past day. Negative funding rates mean that short-sellers are paying long-sellers, indicating that most traders are bearish, while positive funding rates suggest bullish sentiment. This shift from negative to positive funding rates could be a sign of changing market sentiment and may hint at a potential reversal in price direction.
The oversold RSI suggests a potential reversal, as such lows have historically triggered a bullish comeback. When the RSI reaches oversold territory, the selling pressure has been overextended, and a reversal to the upside may be imminent. This reversal tendency has been observed in previous market cycles and can be useful for traders to identify potential trend changes.
If the long-term ascending channel holds, the price action could bounce back, leading to a bull run lasting several weeks or months. In this scenario, buyers could retest the major resistance level at $1.5. A close above this level could invalidate bearish tendencies in 2023 and signal a continuation of the uptrend.
However, bearish tendencies might dominate if the price closes below the ascending channel and the crucial $0.94-$0.97 range, potentially causing a pullback to the $0.7 zone before any significant moves. This scenario highlights the importance of monitoring key support and resistance levels, as they can provide crucial information about potential trend changes and future price action.
Considering the coin’s oversold position and bullish divergence on the OBV, near-term recovery hopes remain alive. However, a breakdown of the long-term ascending channel could dampen buying interest. Additionally, sellers have the upper hand with the price below the 20/50/200 EMA.
However, investors must monitor Bitcoin's movements, as MATIC shares a 70% 30-day correlation with BTC. Before making decisions, new investors should carefully evaluate the market conditions, technical indicators, and on-chain metrics. The Okto DeFi App delivers a self-custodial storage solution for MATIC tokens while granting users access to a myriad of DeFi investment opportunities.